- Today's Observation -
Should We Start Building Bomb Shelters?
World War I started in 1914, but as early as 1910, it had become clear that Germany and Britain would soon be going to war. Each had embarked on a crash program to build dreadnoughts. Dreadnoughts were massive battle ships that could throw shells for miles. The entire class of ships was named after the H.H.S. Dreadnought, Britain’s first battleship.
China and the United States are on a similar path, and China is constructing warships at a much faster pace. Already China has 350 modern warships, compared to just 293 for the United States. China is hard at work building its third aircraft carrier. Their cruisers are already tougher than our ancient ones. They are building new warships at a pace three times faster than the United States.
People still think of China as a communist country, but since President Xi appointed himself President for life, China has really become a dictatorship. If their economy ever starts to slow down, and their people start to get restless, President Xi, the leader of 1.35 billion people, could order the invasion of Taiwan. This would rally the people behind him. The outcome of the war will likely be determined by the accuracy of their missiles. Folks, modern missiles are so accurate that they are hitting targets dead-on from over 1,000+ miles away.
At the Battle of Midway, during World War II, the U.S. sank four of Japan’s aircraft carriers. After that, the outcome of the war in the Pacific was in little doubt. Could the U.S. lose three or four aircraft carriers in the coming Battle of the Taiwan Straights? Yes. Easily. Would the U.S. then back off and let the Chinese take Taiwan, Guam, and Okinawa? I don’t think we could. The war against China needs to be fought in the “second island chain” in the South China China, rather than off the coast of California.
We are mustering allies, as President Xi keeps angering and scaring the whole world. Heaven knows why Xi picked a fight with the Indians over some frozen rocks on their mutual border; but the result has been the addition of Australia to the Quad “Alliance" of India, Japan, and the U.S. Recently, even the pacifist governments of France and Germany have started pushing back on the Chinese. They have sent subs and destroyers to the Indian Ocean.
Who will win the coming war? China. The Chinese will strike first and without warning. They will knock out much of our fleet and all of our airfields on Guam, before the centipede even finishes getting his ankles taped (old joke about the football game between the big animals and the small ones). Then China would likely start island-hopping on its way to California. When their missiles bases and missile ships get close enough, imagine powerful conventional missiles flying through the windows of Google, Microsoft, Intel, Lockheed-Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Boeing.
What can we do? We need new ship-building facilities on the East Coast, new oil processing plants scattered all across our coasts, and dozens of underground missile manufacturing plants scattered throughout the Heartland.
What can you do? A nice home in the Boonies would be smart. Must you simply live in California? How about a wine cellar / bomb shelter in your newly-constructed partial basement? Remember, these missiles will be both highly-accurate and conventionally-tipped. The whole city is not going to be flattened - just the power plants, the dams, the reservoirs, the water treatment plants, the freeway overpasses, the railway stations, and the major food distribution warehouses. As the Church Lady used to say on Saturday Night Live,“Isn’t that special?”
The moment Elon Musk takes The Boring Company public, I intend to buy some shares. It’s not hard to imagine a missile war that could drag on for a decade, forcing a lot of American companies to move their manufacturing facilities underground.